What you’re basically saying is that Flash would be usable on the iPad if Apple were to abandon the very thing that people like most about it, the cursorless touch interface. This is like saying that the RIAA could fix all of their “piracy” problems by switching back to selling nothing but vinyl records.

There are several PC touch screens and non apple touch screen phones that all operate with flash, the cursor just hangs out when it’s not in use and reappears with a double touch. I personally think the iPad maybe be useful, but at present it’s overpriced and underpowered and the idea that flash and a touchscreen is incompatible is just patently false.

-This is mostly true, but the iPhone is mainly only popular in the states. Nokia has a far larger share of the world market.

But it’s a mistake to assume the iPad will be successful just because the iPhone and iTouch were. Despite the similarities it is a different device that won’t be used in the exact same way as the others.

Simple truth of the matter is people expect more from larger and more expensive devices. So it is unlikely the iPad will do as well as the iPhone/iTouch.

It’s just a question if they can do well enough to still be a success or not.

Sorry, if I’m going to shell out hundreds of dollars for a device, I want to own it. I don’t want the manufacturer to keep an interest.

This is not just a matter of principle.

I’m sure removing apps that are basically ads for a competing phone (Droid) or sexually suggestive apps (iBoobies) is a “slippery slope,” but who cares? That stuff is stupid. If I wanted complete control over what my phone/tablet does and can have, THAT is where I have choice. The sky is not falling.

You’re right. All the talk about why flash is not on the iDevices is pure speculation. But you sure seem to “know” why it isn’t…

“June 29, 2009 – Apple, others agree to universal cell phone charger standard in Europe”
http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-10274953-94.html

Who thinks that Apple will sell TWO versions of the iPhone? But I guess none of this matter for the iPod Touch or the iPad since they are not cell phones.

All of the arguments over Flash performance are not only based on speculation (since none of us actually knows how well it would run on the i* platform, unless we have an Adobe developer among us who is willing to break his company’s NDA), but are basically just a way of saying it’s okay that Steve bans things arbitrarily, for his own reasons based on remaining a tight fist of control on his platform, as long as we can be convinced that we didn’t really want them in the first place.

That’s what it comes down to. I don’t need or want a “benevolent” dictator telling me and third party developers what options I should be allowed, or not allowed, to have on the hardware I own. I don’t need daddy Steve to protect me from the choices I might make out in the big bad world of the software marketplace, but that’s certainly what the “Flash performance sucks” argument sounds like. It really sounds like “well, you think you want Flash, but if you had it you’d find out you didn’t, and isn’t it great that Steve is preventing you from making such a bad choice?” Feh. I can make up my own mind, thank you very much.

On the USB port. Yes, I do want an additional micro USB port. It’s not a matter of what the dock connector can do, it’s that the micro USB is now the ITU standard for mobile device charging connectors, with every major device maker (except Apple) on board to completely eliminate proprietary charging connectors by 2012. But as usual, Apple has to be different, probably because even if you use a micro USB to dock connector adapter, that still means someone paid the Apple tax for the authentication chip inside it…

wow.

Something to consider, if you’re going to use Flash on the Mac as an example. Why should Adobe devote development resources to improving Flash performance on the Mac at this point, when Apple has been snubbing them for a few years now, especially now that with the iPad, Apple is more or less explicitly saying “the web doesn’t really need Flash any more”? Am I surprised that Flash on the Mac still sucks? Not at all… if I was Adobe I certainly wouldn’t be putting any effort into it.

– Adobe’s (arguably) most popular suite is Adobe CS. Mac OSX has been 64-bit since Tiger (2005) and moreover in Leopard (2007.) Adobe supported 64-bit for Windows in CS4 (2008) and is expected to (finally) support 64-bit Mac OSX by mid-2010 (CS5.)

– If there is an issue (snubbing) between the two, it’s not one-sided.

– And how exactly would flash work on a touch-based device? you need to be able to “hover-over” to use the menus. Flash would need to be completely redesigned AND all sites using flash would have to re-fitted. What about right-click? and so forth…
It’s made for a mouse and keyboard. Apple couldn’t magically make it work even if it wanted to.

On cables — the micro USB connector is now an ITU standard for charging mobile devices, and pretty much every handset maker except Apple has signed on. They don’t need to change the iPod connector, but you would think they could find room on the iPad for the micro USB as well. But then you could use generic charging accessories, instead of paying the iPod tax… never mind.

– The Dock Connector does more than charge, it’s way more versatile than a simple USB port. And you want an *additional* micro USB port? That’s crazy.

Whether the iPad will succeed is not in question — it will, I’m sure. Whether that success will be a good or bad thing, however… unfortunately I fear the latter, because it will reinforce Apple’s control.

– I think “Apple’s Control” as you put it, is why the iPhone/iPT works. The app store is simple and easy to use. Updating your device is literally just plug it into your computer. If you d/l an app from the app store, it’s just going to work. I think continuing this “model” for a tablet device was smart.

On cables — the micro USB connector is now an ITU standard for charging mobile devices, and pretty much every handset maker except Apple has signed on. They don’t need to change the iPod connector, but you would think they could find room on the iPad for the micro USB as well. But then you could use generic charging accessories, instead of paying the iPod tax… never mind.

Whether the iPad will succeed is not in question — it will, I’m sure. Whether that success will be a good or bad thing, however… unfortunately I fear the latter, because it will reinforce Apple’s control fetish. Oh well, it’s Steve’s world, we’re just lucky to live in it I guess…

1) You have a point on your criticism of Flash, it is 32bit, Adobe may indeed be dragging their heels to not rush support for computers that account for just around 10% of the market, and Adobe is known for being slow fixing and updating Flash.

But it is also true that Apple prevents full access to its API and without that access no 3rd party developer can make a bug free version of their app for Apple systems. So it’s a mix bag…

Really, review all public statements made by Apple on Flash and you will definitely not get the impression they ever wanted it on their system. And why would they when they got their own versions they want everyone to use?

Apple won’t even let developers use the word Android for example, http://thegadgetgurus.net/2010/02/05/apple-you-cant-use-the-word-android-in-app-description/

Or the infamous “don’t-duplicate-Apple-products” policy that Apple forces developers of the Apple App Store to follow.

Btw, Adobe does have a 64-bit Flash Player 10 prerelease for Linux. http://labs.adobe.com/technologies/flashplayer10/releasenotes_64bit.html

And they expect to provide native support for across the board 64-bit platforms in an upcoming release of Flash Player following the release of Flash Player 10.1, which is also addressing the security threats. So they are very slow but they aren’t really ignoring the problems.

2) The cable issue isn’t about changing the iPod style connector. People just want less cables and not more. The lack of standard ports just means you need more cables and more adapters. Even if you just want to use a SD card or USB drive.

3) Unlike the iPhone and iTouch, an external power pack for the iPad won’t be an insignificant increase in mass and bulk. Potentially negating the iPad’s otherwise advantageous form factor and weight.

4) Limiting/locking the device is not trying to “meet the needs of the majority of people.” It’s open source products that try to do that but the iPad is more of a niche product, which is perfectly fine if they can find a market for it. Like you implied, if people want something else then get something else.

Other than those 4 points though you may indeed be right.

Pre-orders may just be a week away from being allowed. So soon we shall see actual numbers and the speculation can end as to whether the iPad will succeed or fail.

http://netbookboards.com/2010/02/21/ipad-pre-orders-may-start-this-week/

Some observations. The cable thing is a red herring. There were few MP3 players out before the iPod that used anything near a standard. I had a Rio and some other no-name brand, neither of which used the mini-USB plug, and Apple started using FireWire on the first iPod. I wish they’d have never left that, but in a move to placate the PC users, they decided on a standard that they developed that would give access to data, charging, line out, etc., and licensed it to various third parties to make charging solutions with. There are currently iPod chargers from everything to Hello Kitty alarm clocks to Bowers & Wilkins sound systems that all use the iPod charger plug. This is a huge third party business, and if Apple changed the charger pins to something else, there would be a large hue and cry from that community that “Apple is unfair.” You’ll get a cable with your iPad – stow it in your bag or pocket with the wall-wart that will most likely be there as well (as with the iPhone) and plug it into any 110 outlet. If you’re actiely using it longer than that, grab a charging solution like the Newer device that was reviewed here a week or so ago, and plug the USB cable into that. There will more than likely be a large number of external battery clip-ons for the iPad, just as there is for the iPhone and iPod Touch. But, for the large majority of folks, 10 hours at a sitting is a good long time.

Flash runs poorly on the Mac, not because Apple doesn’t allow direct access to hardware acceleration, but because Adobe doesn’t develop well for the Mac. Only 50% of currently-shipping Macs use hardware acceleration, yet the plug-in works poorly on all Macs. How would giving Adobe access to the hardware improve the experience of the other half of the Mac users out there? There are also reported security openings that have been on the forums for 18 months that have not only gone unaddressed, but they have not even been alluded to in public by Adobe. One developer has a website that will reliably crash your browser just by loading the page. And the fact that Adobe drags it’s feet regarding updating Flash is a matter of public record. It took far longer to get native OS X support and Intel-Mac support than most other apps. Apple even re-wrote Safari to allow handling 32-bit plug-ins, since Flash is the only piece of non-64-bit code that ships with the current systems. Wonder when (or if) Adobe will get around to making Flash 64-bit? Snow Leopard shipped in May as fully 64-bit. I’ll bet even M$ Office ships 64-bit before Adobe does. Who wants to put this type of “feature” into your operating system and have people experience it? I’d rather explain “this site is not supported” than “this code doesn’t work on this machine” any day. The first is an intentional decision to not use poorly-supported code. The second makes it look like you can’t support something, which is your fault, not the other guy’s.

The iPad is all-Apple, and will stand or fail on that. The processor, the design, the OS, the battery technology – everything is done by Apple, and this means a lot. It means a lot to the customer calling for tech support, talking with someone who can give them real answers. It means a lot to someone developing apps, when they know the exact performance specs of the machines that will execute their code. And it means a lot for people buying apps, that they don’t have to worry if it’s going to hijack their banking information or something.

Apple is not worried about the edge cases. If you want Flash, don’t buy an iPhone, iPod Touch, or an iPad. Get a Droid or an HP Slate. If you want open apps, go for an Android phone or something with WebOS. If you want something that is more prurient – well, there are many sources for that, even on the iPhone. Just no apps. But don’t talk about anti-competitive behavior in the same sentence. By allowing for edge cases, Apple is saying “We’re going to try and meet the needs of the great majority of people. We think they will be delighted beyond measure. There is plenty of room for others to make a market for themselves out of those who want cheaper, or more open, or Flash-enabled, or non-proprietary-cable-using devices. We’re making this for those who want elegance, a certain level of battery life, tested applications from a trusted source, and world-class support and service. For this type of device, we’re going to charge quite a reasonable price, compared with what it would cost to cobble together this package elsewhere.”

And remember – the iPad is going to ship pretty much as it was demonstrated last month. The demo unit that Jobs used was not a lab-assembled test case. It is what’s being sent to the FCC for compliance testing. The Slate tablets and other devices shown by Steve Ballmer at CES aren’t even in the product pipeline at this point. They were all prototypes and proofs of concept. Project Natal has an approximate date set (Holiday 2010), but who remembers the last time Microsoft actually met a ship date on a new product?

So, as the time nears for the actual launch of the iPad, when you see lines forming at Apple stores, don’t think it’s all fan-boys and fan-girls. You may just see the neighbor you have been helping to rid their PC of viruses, your mother or grandmother, and your competitor, who’s trying to find a faster, easier way to get at the information they want, without the hassle of a “real” computer. This is going to be the computing device for those who don’t like to learn computers.

Actually it is good to point out that the publishers are the ones asking for these prices. The only difference is Amazon sells ebooks almost for a loss to give the $9.99 prices they give.

The $12-$15 is also just the maximum price. So some of Apple’s ebooks may actually match Amazon’s $9.99 price point but for now Amazon has the advantage for ebooks with their more aggressive pricing.

There is also the question as to whether you can access free online ebooks with the iPad and whether it will be difficult to establish a really large library without easy interchangeable storage medium like a simple SD card slot.

Of course you can get an adapter but that makes it just a little less portable and chips away at it’s otherwise good form factor advantage when both ebook readers and tablets are coming out with built in card readers for additional storage and even USB ports for universal compatibility with most portable storage and device mediums.

But whether this is truly a negative will depend on the user and whether it truly limits them or not.

I appreciate your thoughts.

I’m not sure I agree about the “game Apple is plating with publishers” comment. I don’t want to pay $12-15 for eBooks, but if the publishers want that price so not to devalue their product, perceived or otherwise, it’s their choice. If no one buys eBooks or the public will simply not bite, and prices will have to follow.

I guess the “cables” issue is a non-issue for me since I have an iPhone & a MBP. But, I see what you mean, *if* you normally didn’t need to carry an iPhone/iPod cable, it would be one more extra cable. I don’t use a USB cable for anything travel-related. If I take an external HD (rarely) I use FW.

LOL about the wipes. The case I meant was the one that protects the iPad that can be converted so you can type in landscape-mode while it’s propped more like a keyboard. But, since you mentioned it, I think it’s a great idea that you have the option to use a “real” keyboard with the iPad if you want. Also the stylus is not something I’ve been too fond of. I use it on the DS and my hand gets a cramp after a while, so I’m glad it’s not the main way to use the iPad, but I bet developers could come up with apps that use a stylus (I know they have for the iPhone.)

Battery life. I think 7-10 is enough per day for me. My iPhone doesn’t get that much and I only need to recharge at night. Plus, you know 3rd-party vendors will have solutions out the wazoo for this. like they do for the iPod/iPhone.

As for texting, I assume it’ll be the same on the iPad as it is on the iPT. I know there is a jailbroken app/feature that let’s you reply to a text w/o leaving what you’re currently doing. That would be nice, but I’ll probably still use my iPhone for texts/IM while I’m on the iPad.

As for the UI. I think it works well, but I agree that it’s (almost) 3 years old and needs an overhaul to accommodate the plethora of apps people download.

As for the app store censorship, I don’t get it. I don’t care if there are “iBoobies” or whatever, but why have parental controls if Apple is going to do that for you? It’s the lack of Firefox-type apps that bothers me more.

I compare the iPad to the Kindle as a book reader. For that one task it’s not nearly as good. But since you ask, yes I can delete music from my Kindle without attaching it to a computer first. The pricing game that Apple is playing with publishers is also bad for consumers.

The iPad is supposed to be much more than a book reader though…so I tried to go through some of my other concerns. Yes, I agree the Kindle doesn’t play a part in these other areas.

Just to touch on some of your comments.

1. If I have to buy some sort of special case that holds an external keyboard to type…why not carry a netbook? As for cleaning fingers first…right. I guess I’ll carry a bunch of wipes around in that case. You’re right this is a problem for all tablets unless they use a stylus and have handwriting recognition. I know, I know…Steve says a stylus is not allowed.

2. I care about cables because when I travel I have to carry them to do things like recharge the device. Most of the mobile phone industry settled on a USB standard which means carrying one cable…well, except Apple. This also means every device that wants to communicate with Apple’s devices requires their connector. There’s no reason that Apple couldn’t have adopted the standard except for anti competitive behavior.

3. The point about Flash is that Apple is purposely closing its systems to prevent competition.

4. Not having a battery that can be replaced, and not having standardized cables make it harder to use. A device that you have to put back in its case because you can’t swap batteries isn’t much of a selling point either…is it?

5. I can text from my iPod Touch…will this not work on an iPad? To put it in Appleese “There’s an app for that”, but I do have to quit out of whatever I’m doing to do so.

6. If you’re going to have 140K applications you need to do a whole lot better job of presenting them than the current system.

Someone else commented that I should just “get used to the App Store” because everyone else will have them. First, I should note that it wasn’t Apple that came up with this idea…it really dates back to Nintendo and the whole cartridge licensing deal. The problem is Apple has become even more aggressive in their censorship of apps. Apple, like Nintendo, is censoring applications based on their content and whether or not they’re competitive with Apple products. It’s anti competitive and will harm development. I don’t care that there is an App Store…Blackberry has one as well, but locking your machine to only allow applications that come through that store is a problem.

So, I see some deficiencies in the iPad hardware/software if Apple wanted to they could probably correct them over time. Worse though is the dangerously anti-consumer/anti-competitive behavior that Apple is engaging in. Supporting continuing steps in that direction are not going to make things better.

1) It’s not a full computer but for a specialized device it isn’t more powerful than a netbook and is priced higher than netbooks.

Not a huge issue, since you expect to pay a premium for Apple products and the iPad is well designed at only 1.5 pounds. But shouldn’t have been omitted, especially since you pointed out Apple considers netbooks pointless and wants to show the iPad as the better alternative device for between smartphone and notebook use.

2) You left out that much of the reasons why Apple left out features is because they have other products that fill those needs. Like Apple TV for HD content. So is more for people who will invest in a range of Apple products or don’t need those features to begin with.

3) dc already pointed out that Adobe doesn’t have the access to properly engineer Flash for Apple. Mostly because Apple doesn’t support competing products and would rather you use Core Image, Core Animation, Core Audio, QuickTime and Cocoa.

So that’s Apple’s fault and not Adobe’s. They simply don’t want you to use Flash.

HTML5 is also still in beta, so even though Flash may get replaced eventually it’s still number one for now. So there really isn’t many alternatives for iPad users who may want to access more than 64% of the internet.

And even when Flash does get replaced, whatever it gets replaced by will also be plagued by advertisement, as that’s the fault of advertisers and not Flash.

4) No mention of the competition, like Notion Ink Tablet is a glaring omission when it came to Apple’s timing!

The iPhone may have had flaws as well when it first came out but it also had little to no competition. But the iPad will within months of its release have an ever increasing number of competitive products that in many ways will offer more features and at least some will be at better price point.

Limiting the draw of the iPad to those who are either already using Apple products and thus fill a gap. Or those drawn to its interface and sleek design.

Also in many ways the iPad, even though it offers a little more, will have to compete even with existing iPhone and iTouch owners. For on the go use smaller devices do win out as a simple matter of convenience and not everyone will travel in a way that can take advantage of a larger screen.

But actual user reviews will be telling and will show whether Apple has a good strategy going with the iPad or whether it’ll be the next Newton and we’ll have to wait years before they try again.

– I just responded to your post point-by-point.

The iPad has some positives but to me there are more negatives:
1. Battery life is reportedly too short. The Kindle lasts for weeks…and never requires the use of a computer. The iPad will last (they say) 10 hours and then like the iPod Touch you’ll still have to connect it to a computer (with a proprietary cable) to do things like delete a song? Not much of a mobile device there really…unless, of course, you buy a netbook to bring along with it on the road.

– The Kindle doesn’t use the same technology, but you knew that. Can you delete a song on the Kindle? It’s weird, you *start out* by comparing it to the Kindle and it’s one stand-out feature, but then later you only mention features that the Kindle doesn’t have (Flash, multitasking, apps, etc.)

2. Putting the iPad down on a table to type and then view the screen at an angle is not going to be comfortable. We’re also talking about a very large screen to keep from becoming a smudged mess.

– The point is just silly. Clean your fingers and use the iPad case that converts for typing. I know it isn’t included, but ALL tablet type devices would need a solution for this. Apple at least addressed this.

3. Not only is the SIM card not a standard size…Apple still refuses to use standard cables. Would it have been that difficult to use a USB based cable? There is no advantage to the fragile iPhone/iPad connectors.

– Who cares what kind of cable you use? They are available EVERYwhere and they are cheap. I have 3-4. Also, what is the standard size SIM card for a tablet device? This SIM is a standard. It’s just a newer standard. And why does that matter?

4. No Flash. This isn’t about stability…this is about Apple locking control of content and the sale of it on their machines. For years and years people were upset that Microsoft wouldn’t allow developers access to APIs…Apple does it and once again people make up reasons to protect them. Apple should also remember that if not for Adobe and PageMaker…(and perhaps Microsoft and Excel) there might not be an Apple today.

– Actually, I think it’s both. At one point 85% of the streaming audio/video on the Internet was RealPlayer, now it’s tied to Flash. What’s your point?

5. Apple at one time sold a very nice pad device it was called the Newton 2100. By the final iteration the handwriting recognition was fantastic and while it wasn’t small…you could easily take it with you on the road. It also allowed you to to swap batteries and even use AAs in a pinch.

– Yea, let’s use AAs. That’s a selling point.

6. The App Store – What a horrible, slow mess. It is so chock-full of garbage it’s really impossible to find quality applications anymore. The search functionality is lacking and sorts after a search are non-existent. Keep all the apps…just find a far, far better way to find, view, demo and purchase them.

– I agree that there is way too much garbage. I use sites like appshopper.com to help filter the 140k apps. But I’d still rather have 140k options rather than 20k.

7. The UI. This one I really don’t get. On my iPod Touch the applications are just pasted onto a screen. There’s no easy way to reorder them by type, title, etc. (Yes, I know I can drag them around and from screen to screen). Requiring someone remember their media player is on page four, row three, column two is NOT a good UI.

– Well, I usually remember where my important apps are, but if not, just use universal search. I agree that the exact same UI for the iPad may not be as great, but I don’t know if I’m gonna have 60+ apps on there all the time.

8. Multitasking? So, if I’m flipping through an online magazine and I want to send a link to someone else I have to copy the link (it’s nice Apple finally added that advanced feature), shut down the magazine application, open the email application, paste and send the link, shut down the email app and then relaunch the magazine? Oops…someone wants to IM me….they can’t unless I have another device nearby. Apple continually advertises that it’s important to be able to talk on the phone and access data on the web…but email/IMs/Texting and doing something else isn’t important? C’mon.

– Okay, well, I agree about IM/Text, but email can be sent *in-app* w/o leaving the app. I do that all the time using my Twitter app to send a link to an email buddy. You can also email your current page while in Mobile Safari the same way. I would like to be able to reply to a text w/o having to exit my current app. Of course, there is no texting on the iPad, so…

– Also, developers have the ability to “save-state” their apps upon exit, so they go right back to where they were when you exited them. Except for streaming music, this takes care of most multitasking gripes.

I’m sure Apple will sell a bunch of these devices at launch…there are plenty of sheep that will camp out to get one. It will probably improve over time, but I very much doubt that Apple will change it’s proprietary and controlling ways anytime soon…unless forced to do so by the courts.

– baa…

The difference is not that Apple has a locked down app store, it’s what they do with it. Palm, as near as I can tell, doesn’t really care what you do with WebOS as long as you don’t screw stuff up, and I expect the same sort of attitude from Microsoft. (Not that I don’t expect MS to use their app store anti-competitively, but it’s more their style to buy or duplicate apps they want to get rid of.)

And as for Google, given that Android is Open Source, that Google doesn’t own the hardware, and that the Android Market is not the sole source of apps, trying to lock it down tight at this point would be like closing Pandora’s box. (And the longer they wait, the harder it gets, because of the platform having momentum the way it is now.) Sure, they could release a new version of Android that is locked down, but they don’t have the power to force anyone to use it — all they would end up doing is causing a fork, which would be messy, fragment the community, and probably mark the end of Android as a viable consumer product.

Apple Saves Us from Burden of Choice
http://ikidnot.blogspot.com/2010/02/apple-saves-us-from-burden-of-choice.html

You might as well get over the app store issue… the other big players in the mobile space (RIM, Google, Palm, Microsoft) have noticed that this is working well for Apple, and are likely going to ape what Apple is doing. Palm already has a similar construct in place, and word is that MS is going to build something similarly locked-down for the Windows 7 phones. And it will only take one person submitting a malicious app that covertly compromises user data on Android devices before Google start thinking about locking down the Android app market.

That backlit LCD displays are more fatiguing to our eyes than e-ink is a bit of misinformation that has been perpetuated based on things that were true about old CRT displays with low refresh rates. You know, technology that is now a couple of decades old.

Newer LCD displays refresh faster than the human eye can detect, so that is no longer a concern. Also worthy of note is the fact that the iPad, unlike a normal laptop or desktop display, has an ambient light sensor, and adjusts the display brightness based on the amount of light in the room (like the iPhone does).

The NYT has an article on the subject that is quite enlightening. I suggest you give it a read: http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02/12/do-e-readers-cause-eye-strain

for entering a lot of data, the external keyboard would be used. This is where I think my old netbook wins though – it will be sturdier & more stable than the iPad + keyboard. On a plane or train, the amount of movement of iPad relative to external keyboard will annoy me – it did when I used a PDA + bluetooth keyboard.